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ERA calculations

PECSW and FPEN in Pharmaceutical Environmental Risk Assessment

Phase I environmental exposure assessment uses the predicted environmental concentration in surface water (PECsw). The population fraction term, commonly represented as F_PEN in the current EMA guideline, links exposure to the proportion of a population receiving the active substance.

Key considerations

What PECsw represents

PECsw is the predicted concentration of the active substance in surface water under the Phase I exposure scenario. It is an exposure estimate used to determine whether further environmental assessment is needed.

What F_PEN represents

F_PEN is a fraction rather than a concentration. It represents the fraction of the population receiving the active substance and can be refined using reliable prevalence data and, where relevant, treatment-regimen information.

Why prevalence data matter

The current EMA guideline allows F_PEN to be refined using reliable, independent prevalence data for the relevant indication(s). The guideline describes how regional or member-state differences and data recency should be considered.

Avoiding a misleading calculation

The Phase I framework retains other default realistic-worst-case parameters unless the guideline specifically allows refinement. A project-specific ERA should document the source and rationale for any refinement.

Primary regulatory sources
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